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Kalshi traders see 54% odds of a rate hike in 2026 as Fed is split on policy

Marc Lasry maintains market optimism despite Iran tensions, having made an accurate prediction on the geopolitical situation.
Charles Payne notes that active fund managers have faced "rough sledding" recently due to challenging market conditions.
Calshi traders bet on a 54% probability of a 2026 rate hike, reflecting the Fed's internal split on monetary policy.
SK Hynix's ADR listing is set for Friday, with implications for U.S. memory stocks and the semiconductor sector.
Regional banks are rallying, with one standout name drawing attention as a "bullish golden cross" appears in the XLF chart.
New York Times and other entities are urging courts to sanction OpenAI regarding a copyright dispute over its ChatGPT technology.
WD-40 (伍德) reported strong non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, beating estimates by $0.77, alongside revenue growth of $195.1M.
SA analyst upgraded or downgraded several major stocks including NVDA, GM, AXP, and DDOG based on recent performance.
Goldman Sachs raised concerns about a fresh threat to global oil supplies, potentially impacting oil prices amid market speculation.
Investors are advised to focus on quality stocks and stay cautious, according to Clough Capital, despite mixed signals from consumer data.

Global banks and the Hong Kong regulatory authorities have launched 11 new financial connectivity measures that are structurally positive for Hong Kong's banking sector, while the Hang Seng Index fell 169 points to close at 24,030 despite gains in semiconductor stocks.

China's National Development and Reform Commission released the full 2026 "Two Major" construction project list, allocating over 800 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds to support 1,417 key infrastructure projects, strengthening capital backing for stable economic growth.
China's central bank (PBOC) continued its 20th consecutive month of gold purchases in June, increasing reserves by 480,000 ounces to 75.44 million ounces, signaling ongoing strategic diversification of national assets.
Longxin Technology officially launched its IPO on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Science and Technology Innovation Board (STAR Market), with public and net subscription set for July 16, aiming to issue 6.688 million shares (10% of post-IPO total equity).
China Semiconductor (Zhongxin) surged over 10% amid strong A-share performance, while Minimax dropped 18% after its lock-up period ended, reflecting post-IPO volatility in tech stocks.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed at 24,030 points, down 169 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index flat at 4,731 points, with trading volume robust despite market caution.
China A-shares saw three major indices rise 1.7%–4.5% in afternoon trading, with Zhongxin A surging nearly 14% and surpassing Moutai in market value, highlighting tech-sector momentum.
Caribbean Investment upgraded Alibaba's target price to 190 yuan, reaffirming a "Buy" rating, while JPMorgan also raised its forecast for Alibaba's 2027 Q1 earnings, expecting better-than-expected results.
Goldman Sachs reported that China's People's Bank and Financial Regulatory Bureau introduced 11 measures to enhance financial interconnectivity, positively impacting Hong Kong banking structures and cross-border capital flows.
U.S. Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller called for reforms in investor communication, noting that forward guidance—while useful if flexible—can become problematic if rigidly applied, revealing internal policy debates.
China's Ministry of Civil Affairs issued guidelines to strengthen the three-tier rural-urban elderly care network, defining roles for county, township, and village-level facilities to improve service accessibility and resource allocation.
China's Ministry of Transport and Emergency Ministry jointly released an opinion to improve inland waterway safety, targeting a 50% reduction in accidents by 2030 compared to the "14th Five-Year" period.
Natural Resources Ministry confirmed it will link land supply to housing inventory de-stocking, prioritizing new land for major projects and public welfare over commercial real estate development.
China's power sector has transitioned from basic supply to high-quality service, with the National Energy Administration reporting the world's largest power system now offering seamless, face-scan-based electricity access nationwide.
Over 120 companies released mid-year performance previews, with electronics and chemical sectors showing strong gains; Xinlian Electronics and Wanglong Information both announced double-digit profit growth, driving stock surges.
Toludene Isocyanate (TDI) price hikes boosted profits for multiple chemical firms, including Cangzhou Dafa, which projected a 330%+ profit increase for the first half-year of 2026.
AI-driven demand is fueling growth in cloud computing, with Wind's cloud index rising 4.05%; firms like Shenfusi, Green Alliance, and Wangsu saw all 12 listed AI/cloud stocks hit limit-up prices.
China's semiconductor industry is experiencing a prolonged "super cycle," with Jiaoshi Fund analyst Wang Guozhong expressing optimism about domestic AI advancement and minimal systemic risk in tech assets.
Hong Kong's market valuation is entering a repair phase, with public funds increasing allocation to HK tech, internet, and consumer assets; the Hang Seng Index rebounded 2.99% on July 8, with tech stocks up 4.97%.
Eight lithium battery chain companies reported pre-expected mid-year profits, driven by China's high EV export growth and global energy storage demand, signaling sector recovery and capacity investment expansion.
Michael Burry reaffirmed his long-term buy of JD.com, citing shifting AI investment trends from Japan/Korea to China and Hong Kong, reflecting confidence in regional tech asset resilience.

No single source provided contains a definitive event describing the JP market; therefore, no valid sentence can be constructed to meet the requirement.

Japanese consumers are saving more due to rising inflation and cost pressures.
The bankruptcy of “Santōshin” raises concerns about secondary failures and supply chain disruptions.
Government is launching support programs for small businesses and managing financial risks.
Market movements are driven by tech sectors (AI, semiconductors) and global economic factors.
Policy changes relate to taxation, digital infrastructure, and corporate governance reforms.
International corporate partnerships (e.g., VW–Nissan) and cross-border investments are expanding.
Government statements emphasize financial stability and clarify intervention intentions.
Economic data shows inflation trends, stock market performance, and labor market shifts.
Corporate partnerships in tech and automotive sectors are shaping industry developments.
Global economic trends are influencing Japan’s domestic policies and market dynamics.

The most critical event in the crypto market is the criminal complaint against Circle, which has placed the USDC freeze policy under intense scrutiny and exposed significant regulatory risks for stablecoins.

Significant funds exceeding $7.2 billion have migrated from LayerZero to Chainlink's CCIP standard, with Mantle joining the transition as analysts warn of shifting market infrastructure.
Billions are flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs and private credit funds, a trend that experts interpret as a rising signal of underlying market volatility and risk.
Analyst reports indicate that AI-driven contracts are now the primary driver of mining company valuations, with firms like Cipher and TeraWulf currently viewed as undervalued opportunities.
Ethereum's new nonprofit organization aims to establish itself as Wall Street's official guide for navigating the complexities of the cryptocurrency sector.
Aave has launched new vaults specifically designed to attract fintech investors seeking high-yield opportunities in the digital asset space.
Swift has introduced a new blockchain ledger system intended to enable 24/7 banking services for 17 major global financial institutions.
Latin America's largest stock exchange now offers trading options on Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana futures, marking a significant expansion of regulated crypto access in the region.
Pricing real estate assets in Bitcoin is highlighting the perceived loss of value in the US dollar, reflecting broader concerns about fiat currency stability.
Age verification protocols are facing criticism as an unwarranted form of surveillance, with public debate intensifying over digital privacy and user rights.
New reports suggest that the USDC freeze policy is being scrutinized following a criminal complaint against Circle, drawing attention to the governance of stablecoin reserves.

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