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U.S. markets turned more cautious as traders priced in a greater than 50% chance of a Fed rate hike this year amid hawkish policy signals.

SpaceX’s average post-IPO buyer is now nearly underwater after a sharp two-day decline.
Traders on Kalshi assign better than 50% odds that the Federal Reserve will raise rates this year.
One research firm says SpaceX shares could more than double and trade above $400.
Analysts say Nvidia may regain momentum as the AI trade shifts back in its favor.
A car stock is showing an attractive chart setup after spending months trading sideways, according to Jay Woods.
Josh Brown highlighted a tech name tied closely to the data center expansion buildout.
Oppenheimer says SpaceX still has upside after an AI coding deal.
KBW recommends buying the dip in CME Group, arguing fears about perpetual futures are overblown.
Sanders Morris’s chairman says BDCs are in an exceptionally favorable position for investors.
Other notable market headlines include oil supply concerns, yen intervention risks, Buffett’s favored indicator flashing danger, and a record number of US tariffs not slowing Canada much.

Hong Kong stocks ended lower, with the Hang Seng Index falling 387 points as Tencent bought back about HK$500 million worth of shares and policy-driven financial market reforms continued to dominate sentiment.

Major Corporate Buybacks and Insider Purchases: Tencent repurchased 114.4 million shares worth HK$500 million, while industry leader Lei Jun increased his holding in Kingsoft (03888) by nearly 5.33 million shares (24.94% total), signaling strong confidence in long-term development.
Market Volatility and Index Performance: The Hang Seng Index fell 387 points, with tech giants like Meituan dropping 3.5%, while the AI stock Zhipu surged 26% to break HK$2,000, reflecting a sharp divergence in the sector.
Critical Policy Shifts at the 2026陆家嘴 (Lujiazhui) Forum: Key financial regulators announced major reforms including the expansion of the Stock Exchange's 5th Listing Standard to include AI large model enterprises (accelerating "return to A" for Zhipu and MiniMax), and the launch of 5-year RMB bond futures in Hong Kong.
Real Estate and Rental Yield Trends: Property rental yields in Hong Kong continued to decline for 8 consecutive months, dropping to 3.24%, effectively ending the "fixed-rate mortgage over rental yield" (供平過租) scenario, while mainland China maintained policy interest rates unchanged.
Significant Corporate Earnings Warnings (Profit Alerts): Several companies reported deteriorating financials, including Baopedes International expecting a profit-to-loss reversal (up to HK$4 million), and Guofu Quantum expecting losses to expand to approximately HK$2.138 billion.
Utility and Energy Price Adjustments: China Gas announced a 4.4% price hike starting August 1, with standard gas fees rising by 1.25 cents per megajoule, while the Hong Kong government maintained policy interest rates, aligning with market expectations.
AI and Technology Sector Expansion: New government guidelines accelerated the integration of "AI+Consumption" and robotics into consumer scenarios, while AI-powered logistics (e.g., Baidu's Luobo Fast Ride) achieved over 230,000 km of safe operation in Hong Kong.
Global Financial Market Reforms: The People's Bank of China announced six new measures to build a modern financial market, including optimizing short-end interest rate controls, creating overseas central bank repo tools, and piloting offshore RMB foreign exchange trading in Shanghai's Free Trade Zone.
Hong Kong's Global Competitiveness Ranking: Hong Kong rose to the 2nd position globally in the "2026 World Competitiveness Yearbook," highlighting its strength as an international financial hub despite recent market fluctuations.
New Financial Instruments Launching: The 5-year RMB Government Bond Futures will be launched on August 3, with strong support from major banks like Bank of China and China ICBC, alongside the introduction of a digital payment pilot for post-market derivative trading.

Tokyo stocks hit a record high for the second straight day, driven by gains in U.S. equities and easing geopolitical concerns, while the yen weakened to near a 39.5-year low.

Ueda was discharged from the hospital and will return to duty on the 23rd, but he will miss the key BOJ policy meeting.
The Nikkei rose 196 yen to a new record high, supported by U.S. market gains and falling oil prices.
The Tokyo market briefly hit an all-time high as investors reacted positively to U.S. stocks and easing Middle East tensions.
Finance Minister Katayama warned that the government will respond firmly to speculative yen moves.
Japan’s May consumer prices rose 1.4%, staying below 2% for four straight months.
The yen weakened to 161.81 per dollar, nearing its weakest level in about 39 and a half years.
New York stocks rebounded and crude oil fell, reducing inflation concerns.
Deposit-rate increases are intensifying competition among banks, with regional bank fatigue becoming a concern.
Rice prices fell for the fourth consecutive week, reaching 3,588 yen for 5 kilograms.
Nissin recalled 280,000 cup yakisoba products due to possible plastic-like contamination.

Bitcoin falls below $63,000 as risk assets sell off and the week's bounce fades.

Franklin Templeton is proposing new ETFs that would convert corporate dividend income into bitcoin exposure.
Bitcoin and other major crypto assets are falling, with altcoins and DeFi tokens leading the decline.
A sharp selloff is hitting the digital credit market, and Strive’s CEO says leverage liquidations are helping drive the drop.
Microsoft has discovered malware that steals crypto wallets and can spread through USB drives.
XRP slipped about 3% after failing to hold support near $1.15, ending its breakout attempt.
Bitcoin is under pressure in broader markets, with traders reacting to weakness in Strategy’s STRC and continued risk-off sentiment.
Bearish traders are increasing downside bets on bitcoin, including positioning toward the $52,000 area.
Bitcoin briefly fell below $63,000 as the week’s rebound faded and investors pulled back from risk assets.
Former Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky received a final U.S. CFTC ban, closing one regulatory case.
U.S. regulators are pushing stablecoin rules that would require customer identification standards similar to traditional banks under the GENIUS Act.

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